29 January 2026 11:36 UTC · UK Government · GOV.UK Speech · Source · Email X Link

UK Government says Russian victory is far from inevitable

Key points

Says Russia has suffered over 1.2 million military losses
Says UK will support Ukraine for as long as it takes

TL;DR

UK Government says Russia suffered around 420,000 casualties in 2025 and over 1.2 million personnel since the full‑scale invasion.
UK Government says Russia has reallocated over 38% of the 2026 budget to defence, raised VAT, cut social spending to a 20‑year low, and faces a worsening fiscal position.
UK Government says Russia faces recruitment challenges and reliance on foreign fighters, including 18,000 reportedly mobilised and 11,000 DPRK troops.
UK Government says European military support rose by over 50% in 2025 (€40 billion) and pledges to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.

Original text

Thank you, Madam Chair. As we have done every week, we continue to join our partners in condemning Russia’s deliberate tactic of weaponising Winter in Ukraine. The UK’s statement this week will focus on the escalating costs of Russia’s illegal invasion and why a Russian victory is far from inevitable. Russia’s war continues to impose extreme human losses on its own armed forces. In 2025 Russia suffered around 420,000 casualties to gain control of just 0.8% additional Ukrainian territory. This brought its total losses since the full-scale invasion to over 1.2 million personnel. As demonstrated in today’s Security Dialogue, each number represents a person; Russia’s own military personnel are paying the price for the Kremlin’s decisions. The wider Russian population is also bearing increasing costs. Despite allocating over 38% of the 2026 budget to defence and security, the Russian government has raised VAT and has slashed the percentage of the budget allocated to social spending and economic support to a 20-year low. President Putin is choosing to sustain this war at the expense of his people’s welfare. Furthermore, Russia’s economic situation is worsening. Military salaries alone reached $50 billion in 2025 - over 10% of total government expenditure. Oil and gas revenues fell 24% last year, with January 2026 receipts projected to decline 46% year-on-year. The 2025 fiscal deficit exceeded $72 billion, more than five times the original forecast. Finance Minister Siluanov has openly acknowledged that planned domestic borrowing of $70.7 billion in 2026 will hinder the Central Bank’s ability to reduce interest rates, already at 16%. Madam Chair, a Russian victory is far from inevitable. Russia’s recruitment challenges continue to deepen. In November, Russia was forced to relax medical standards to allow individuals with serious health conditions to enlist. Russia is also increasingly reliant on foreign fighters, including 18,000 reportedly mobilised – in addition to 11,000 DPRK troops. Russia’s inability to generate a strategic reserve means it must strip forces from other sectors to pursue attacks, leaving flanks exposed. Ukraine successfully exploited these vulnerabilities with counterattacks near Kupiansk and Dobrophilia in late 2025. The military task ahead for Russia is also becoming harder. Moscow is now attempting to seize Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt” of major cities in Donetsk, which have a pre-war population of over 400,000. Attempting to capture the town of Pokrovsk for the past year – a city of around 60,000 – has cost Russia over 100,000 casualties. There is no evidence to suggest Russia will succeed with the Fortress Belt. Russia cannot outwait Ukraine’s partners. European military support increased by over 50% in 2025, amounting to €40 billion. The UK and its European partners together represent an economy more than nine times the size of Russia’s. We will support Ukraine for as long as it takes. The UK therefore asks the Russian Federation: how does continuing this war, which contravenes all 10 Helsinki Final Act principles, serve the security or prosperity of the Russian people? As evidenced at this Forum over years, Russia’s war is in violation of international law, is in contravention of OSCE principles and – at best – is inconsistent with the interests of its own people.

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