9 March 2026 16:15 UTC · European Commission · EU Commission Press Release · Source · Email X Link

European Commission says economic outlook solid but risks

Key points

Economy solid; modest growth expected
Middle East conflict risks energy-driven stagflation

TL;DR

European Commission says the European economy is overall solid and conditions support modest growth this year and next
European Commission notes developments in the Middle East have materially affected energy prices and could cause stagflation if disruptions persist
European Commission reports G7 ministers committed to coordinated positions and stand ready to use measures such as stockpile release
European Commission presents domestic priorities including cutting red tape, deepening the Single Market, reducing energy dependencies, and advancing a digital euro

Original text

European Commission - Statement Remarks by Commissioner Dombrovskis at Eurogroup press conference Brussels, 9 March 2026 Thank you, Kyriakos. Good evening, everyone. Let me begin with our discussions on the economic outlook. As you would expect, our exchange today also covered the impact of the unfolding situation in the Middle East. The starting point for our economy is overall solid. Last year, the economy surprised slightly on the upside. And conditions are in place for continued modest growth this year and next. At the same time, the European economy continues to navigate a highly uncertain and unpredictable global environment. Developments in the Middle East have already had a material impact on energy prices, posing risks for the broader EU economy. This impact on the European economy will depend on the duration, scope and intensity of the conflict. Should the conflict quickly deescalate, contained disruptions to energy supplies and infrastructure would likely have a limited impact. However, persistent targeting of shipping and energy infrastructure risks exposing the global economy to a stagflationary shock over the longer term. This is to say, a situation where higher energy costs combine with weaker confidence, supply chain disruptions and tighter financial conditions. At this stage, we cannot predict in which scenario we will find ourselves in. It is therefore too early to speculate about specific policy implications. We need to keep a ‘cool head', so to say, and continue to monitor the situation. In this context, today the G7 Finance Ministers held a virtual meeting. While no efforts should be spared to ensure security of energy supply and opening up the Hormuz Strait, we should keep the pressure on Russia to prevent it from filling its war chest. Not doing so would undermine Ukraine. It would undermine the EU's support to Ukraine. And ultimately, it would also undermine our allies, as we know that Russia is playing on the same team as Iran. So, it is commendable that there was a firm commitment from G7 Ministers to coordinate positions. We stand ready to take necessary measures, such as stockpile release. G7 Energy Ministers will take this discussion forward already tomorrow. But one thing is already clear. New challenges around the world underline the urgency of acting decisively here at home. This is the only way to prepare ourselves for new geopolitical realities and safeguard our long-term security and prosperity. That means we must redouble our efforts to overcome those challenges by implementing policies that will unlock Europe's full growth and innovation potential. These include cutting red tape, deepening our Single Market, strengthening our trade network, and reducing our energy dependencies. The upcoming One Europe, One Market Roadmap will set out concrete steps and deadlines to achieve these objectives and more. Then, on other items on today's agenda, I presented the Commission's Opinion that Belgium's Draft Budgetary Plan for 2026 is compliant with the requirements of the excessive deficit procedure. This is obviously positive, but Belgium will need to continue its consolidation and reform efforts to address its challenging public finance situation. As for all Member States, we will continue to monitor fiscal developments closely. Finally, on the digital finance point, we discussed technological advances in the area of payments, including the rise of crypto assets and stablecoins. US dollar-denominated stablecoins currently dominate both the global and European market. So, we took stock of initiatives to develop euro-denominated stablecoins. We must develop EU payment systems to preserve our monetary sovereignty and strategic autonomy while strengthening the international role of the euro. This is another powerful argument for speeding up the work to introduce the digital euro. Thank you. STATEMENT/26/580 Press contacts: Balazs UJVARI (+32 2 29 54578) Francisca MARÇAL SANTOS (+32 2 29 97236) General public inquiries: Europe Direct by phone 00 800 67 89 10 11 or by email

European Commission says economic outlook solid but risks

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