European Commission - Speech [Check Against Delivery] Speech by Commissioner Kos at the Conference on the future of EU Enlargement Tallinn, 13 February 2026 96 points out of 100 in Freedom House's World ranking, second in the 2025 World Press Freedom Index, and leading the European Union in digital public services. Ladies and Gentlemen, Estonia is one of the great success stories of EU enlargement. Estonia seized the...
European Commission - Speech [Check Against Delivery] Speech by Commissioner Kos at the Conference on the future of EU Enlargement Tallinn, 13 February 2026 96 points out of 100 in Freedom House's World ranking, second in the 2025 World Press Freedom Index, and leading the European Union in digital public services. Ladies and Gentlemen, Estonia is one of the great success stories of EU enlargement. Estonia seized the opportunity with both hands, put in the hard work and transformed into a stable and prosperous European nation. Twenty years of membership brought you from 50% of the average European GDP in 2004 to more than 90%. At times when some doubt, it is also a reminder of the unmatched success of Europe's economic model of integration. Estonia's success is an example to our future member states. Your example is one of our strongest weapons in our fight against anti-EU propaganda. And there is currently plenty of that coming from both East and West. When I travel to candidate countries and across our neighbourhood, where we have stepped up our efforts to counter Russian narratives and interference, what I need to bring with me is the good examples we have for them to follow. Estonia and the Baltic countries provide that. When I was visiting Moldova, together with Deputy Prime Minister Gherasimov, I was often told that a small nation like Moldova would undoubtedly lose its autonomy in an EU of almost 500 million people. That European financial assistance would make Moldova dependent on foreigners. That the EU is a direct threat to Moldova's identity. All of these fears are cynical nonsense, aggressively planted by the Kremlin's propaganda factories. Gladly, these fears are easily dispelled by Estonia's success. The Baltics show how those who left the Russian orbit and chose Europe have also left poverty, and insecurity behind. Enlargement today remains that very promise. A promise that we can repeat this success. That is precisely what Moscow fears. Because today, we are determined to apply the recipe for economic and democratic success, in Ukraine, in the Western Balkans, and in Moldova. The war in Ukraine and the daily acts of Russian state terrorism – there is no other word to describe Moscow's attempts to freeze millions of innocent civilians to death – only strengthen our determination, dear Taras, to turn your country into a resounding economic and democratic success. Our past successes had three main ingredients: provide security; enact reforms; attract investment. First, in 2004, EU enlargement went hand in hand with the expansion of NATO, which underpinned security and provided confidence for businesses that their investments were safe. Going forward, this security element will need a much stronger European contribution. We are already moving in this direction with our efforts to rebuild European defence, and with the security guarantees set out by the Coalition of the Willing in Paris earlier this year. Second are structural reforms. This is precisely what the EU accession process is all about and why there can be no shortcuts to these negotiations. We are working with our candidate countries to create strong democratic institutions guaranteeing the rule of law, particularly the independence of the judiciary, fighting corruption, and anchoring media freedom. To create an environment where individuals and businesses can prosper. Third, investments. Last month, in Davos, together with Taras, we had a great discussion on Ukraine's post-war prosperity, together with Mike Pyle of BlackRock. He said “The 2004 enlargement is a powerful reminder of what becomes possible when the right conditions are in place. It's hard to imagine a stronger signal to investors in Europe, and globally, than a credible EU accession reform process”. This is what we are replicating, as we speak here today. To do that, we need to look at the lessons from the 2004-2007 enlargement rounds, but also at what has fundamentally changed. The enlargement of 2004–2007 led to a new era of stability for our continent and an impressive level of economic convergence. But it also created doubts about our ability to enforce respect for our fundamental democratic principles. These doubts impact the public support required for our member states to pursue enlargement. Only a few years ago, overall public support for enlargement across our Member States stood at 37%. Today, because of the war in Ukraine, it has risen to 56%. This is a big jump. Yet, this increase masks significant differences across our Union. The geopolitical changes we are living through have made the environment in which we pursue enlargement far more hostile. This directly impacts the ability of our candidate countries to pursue sometimes difficult reforms. Because some reforms come with short-term political costs. We face a growing tension between the time that is needed to apply a credible, merits-based approach and growing pressure from external players on our candidates - pressure intended to raise the political cost of moving forward on their EU path. In short, our enlargement model requires time, stability and gradual reform. But today's geopolitical environment is unstable and often coercive. The status quo is increasingly unfit to match this reality. We have come to a point where a frank debate is needed to provide answers to a central question: How can we implement our “ingredients of success” in a world that bears little comparison to the one of 2004-2007? I see five crucial elements: First, no shortcuts on reforms. Fighting corruption and building democratic institutions remain the foundation of EU enlargement. Full EU membership can never come at the detriment of those fundamental reforms. Only a credible reform path can underpin trust with EU member states and citizens and ensure the proper functioning of the internal market and our Union as a whole. Without such trust, EU enlargement can never be a success. Second, no Trojan horses. We need an insurance policy against backward steps. A lesson learnt from 2004 is that we need to have safeguards that ensure new members stick to the rules and the integrity of our Union is assured, even 5, 10 or 20 years down the line. This is a major concern for many in Europe. If we can't provide credible answers to that, we will fall short of the public support needed for enlargement. This is why I plead that the next Accession Treaties should contain stronger safeguards against backsliding on commitments made during the accession negotiations, to ensure that new Member States continue to maintain their track-record on the fundamentals. With Montenegro working towards closing all chapters, its accession treaty should be the first of a new generation. Any safeguard should remain in place for as long as necessary. But our treaties are clear, they should not create two-tier membership for countries that are fully aligned with the acquis. Simply put, if new members respect the rules, they will not even notice those safeguards. But if countries go backwards on our fundamentals, such as democracy and rule of law, the safeguards must bite. We plan to send a proposal for an accession treaty to the Council for Member States to take this discussion forward. Third, the EU needs to get ready for new members. The accession of new member states in the coming years is a realistic perspective. We need to get ready. We need to know what the impact of future enlargement will be on key policy areas, our budget and our governance structures. Our citizens ask what enlargement means for them? For their model of social protection? And how will it affect our democratic principles and the rule of law? We are currently working on this assessment, so we make sure that a Union of more than 30 countries will be credible and effective to deliver to all our citizens across the EU. Fourth, we need to reach our future citizens much faster. We are faced with external powers that want to disrupt and destabilise Europe, and we see domestic movements in our candidate countries that wrongly paint the enlargement process as a dead end. In such a world, we need to reach citizens in our candidate countries much faster and more directly, by rewarding those who deliver on reforms and alignment with EU rules with faster integration into EU policies and structures. This is what we are already doing with the integration into our Euro payment area (SEPA) or our free roaming area, which, since the beginning of the year, has been extended to Ukraine and Moldova. We are now proposing to our member states to do the same for the six countries of the Western Balkans. But we need to go much further and bring direct benefits to citizens and businesses in our candidate countries in energy, security and the internal market. This brings me to my final point: Are we ready for peace? We all want a speedy end to the horrific war in Ukraine and reach a just and sustainable peace. While we cannot prejudge the outcome of the ongoing peace negotiations, we know it will create a new reality in Europe as a whole. This begs important questions to all of us here: Are we ready to do what such a new reality will require? Are we ready for peace in Europe? It will raise pressing questions about how we integrate the candidate countries with which we are currently negotiating. In these discussions, the integration of Ukraine in the EU – against the backdrop of the implementation of a peace agreement and possibly far-reaching security guarantees – will undoubtedly bring new impulses. When that happens, we need to be ready to bridge the need for time to fully implement those fundamental reforms, and the need to act decisively to make peace in Ukraine and Europe sustainable. You may well have seen different models being floated by different European leaders in recent weeks and months. I'm glad to see this debate picking up. Let's have this discussion, with one baseline: full membership comes only after full reforms. Ladies and Gentlemen, I see these five elements central to our debate on the future of EU enlargement. Today are going back to the same fundamental challenge the founders of our Union faced: To preserve peace, freedom, and prosperity in Europe, all Europeans need to stand together. The principle stands, the way to do so must evolve with time. Just as it did every time we faced big geopolitical changes in Europe. In the 1980s, when we answered the call of democratic voices in Greece, Spain and Portugal. Or in the early 2000s we brought in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. I am confident that we will again rise to the occasion and do what is necessary to make peace permanent and build – as coined by President von der Leyen – an independent Europe, in control of its own future. SPEECH/26/406
Speech Brief